Gaat het richting half december gebeuren? De ontwikkelingen in de stratosfeer zijn hoopgevend. De poolwervel is bij lange na niet de raging bull als vorig jaar, maar eerder een mak kalfje. Mocht het echt tot een SSW komen, dan is het een kwestie van goede downwelling (moet kunnen met stevige eQBO!!) en dan vervolgens nog eens de troposferische puzzelstukjes. M.a.w. veels te ver om maar iets over ons winterweer te zeggen. Maar uiterst boeiend m.i. om te volgen.
The conditions under which a SSW event is more likely to effectively propagate into the troposphere and perturb the 500mb pattern are winters with a backdrop of -QBO / low solar activity, or +QBO / high solar activity (solar will be addressed in the next section). The overall environment is more favorable than normal for effective downward propagation this cold season due to the presence of an easterly QBO signal and generally decreased solar activity in comparison to the past few winters. Negative (positive) QBO episodes induce increased easterly (westerly) wind anomalies in the upper stratosphere, creating a more (less) favorable pattern for potential sudden stratospheric warming events. Therefore, a negative QBO in and of itself is the preferred state for enhanced stratospheric warming, which can often yield a negative AO in the troposphere. A negative QBO is in fact present right now (strongly negative in fact). http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44944-my-winter-outlook-2014-15/#entry3138966
The conditions under which a SSW event is more likely to effectively propagate into the troposphere and perturb the 500mb pattern are winters with a backdrop of -QBO / low solar activity, or +QBO / high solar activity (solar will be addressed in the next section). The overall environment is more favorable than normal for effective downward propagation this cold season due to the presence of an easterly QBO signal and generally decreased solar activity in comparison to the past few winters. Negative (positive) QBO episodes induce increased easterly (westerly) wind anomalies in the upper stratosphere, creating a more (less) favorable pattern for potential sudden stratospheric warming events. Therefore, a negative QBO in and of itself is the preferred state for enhanced stratospheric warming, which can often yield a negative AO in the troposphere. A negative QBO is in fact present right now (strongly negative in fact). http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44944-my-winter-outlook-2014-15/#entry3138966
Bericht laatst bijgewerkt: 23-11-2014 14:33
„Et nul ne se connait tant qu'il n'a pas souffert, „C'est une dure loi, mais une loi suprème, „Vieille comme le monde et la fatalité, „Qu'l nous faut du malheur regevoir le baptéme, ~Et qu'a ce triste prix tout doit étre acheté. „Les moissons pour murir out besoin de rosée, „Pour vivre et pour sentir l'homme a besoin de pleura, „La joie a pour symbole une plante brisée, „Humide encore de pluie et couverte de fleurs."
