Althans dat is wat ik opmaak uit onderstaande tekst van ESTOFEX
DISCUSSION
...S Scandinavia...BeNeLux...W Germany...
Plume of rather hot, dry and weakly unstable air is present ahead of the cold front. As weak DCVA-related lift overspreads NW-central Europe ... TSTMS will likely initiate along and ahead of the cold front. Given weak capping ... TSTMS may become quite numerous. Deep shear should be only be on the order of 20 knots ... but given inverted-V type profiles ... threat of downbursts continues. Though 20 knots deep-layer shear will be marginal ... along with strong evaporative downdraft cooling/cold-pool formation ... a short-lived/small bow echo or two could occur. Allover severe threat is too low though for a categorical risk.
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