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A level 2 was issued for parts of Germany, Switzerland and France, W Czech Republic, W Poland mainly for the damaging wind gusts, large and very large hail, excessive precipitation and in the lesser extent for the tornadoes.
A level 1 was issued for Denmark, Benelux, parts of France, Austria and Italy, E Poland and E Czech Republic mainly for the large hail and excessive precipitation.
...NE France, Benelux, N Germany, Denmark, Poland...
Although models predicts very large DLS over these areas (25-30 m/s) they are not as consistent with CAPE values and CI. The most optimistic GFS predicts that in the NW Germany CAPE up to 2000 J/kg may overlap with 30 m/s DLS and > 10 m/s LLS. In such conditions if convection will occur, thunderstorms may quickly become supercells and create threat for the large and very large hail and tornadoes as well. If this scenario will come true, the highest threat will fall on the late evening hours. However, there is a high uncertainty whether the predicted thermodynamic instability by the GFS is correct, and due to this, we issue only a Lvl 1 for these area. The same problem concerns Poland where the CAPE prediction in the late evening and night hours is uncertain as well. However, thunderstorms will occur in this area most likely during the night and the convection will become elevated, therefore the degree for the severe weather will decrease. Severe wind gusts will remain to be the main threat.
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