Tot mijn grote verbazing en vreugde zag ik gisteren sinds een lange tijd weer een bijdrage van Stewart. Beter bekend onder zijn naam op netweather Glacier Point. Een pionier op het gebied van de LT-verwachtingen. Hij verdiend daar ook zijn boterham mee. Laten 'we' hopen dat hij vaker weer gaat posten.
Brtivhy bsn 21 juli
The upper level divergence signal in the Indian Ocean (MJO related) is slowly edging across the Indian Ocean towards the Tropical Maritimes. That is a region where the GEFS frequently struggles and shows negative bias, so given the importance of this tropical driver, I would not be in a rush to back the GEFS means here - this is not the model to show us out of next weeks rather large trough dominating north and north-west Europe.
With the tropical signal migrating through the Indian Ocean, we should see a fall in pressure to the east of the Himalayas and pretty rapid spike in tendency in relative angular momentum and the Global Wind Oscillation move towards phase 4. That's a decent signal for Rossby wave influence for rising pressure over NW Europe within a 10-15 day timeframe.
EC EPS 00z going for a pretty impressive turnaround in pressure end next week into the following week, with the longwave trough replaced by a moderate strength +ve height anomaly centred to our east. So much more settled and becoming warmer again in the extended outlook period.
https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83477-model-output-discussion-1st-july-onwards-18z/?p=3237185
Brtivhy bsn 21 juli
The upper level divergence signal in the Indian Ocean (MJO related) is slowly edging across the Indian Ocean towards the Tropical Maritimes. That is a region where the GEFS frequently struggles and shows negative bias, so given the importance of this tropical driver, I would not be in a rush to back the GEFS means here - this is not the model to show us out of next weeks rather large trough dominating north and north-west Europe.
With the tropical signal migrating through the Indian Ocean, we should see a fall in pressure to the east of the Himalayas and pretty rapid spike in tendency in relative angular momentum and the Global Wind Oscillation move towards phase 4. That's a decent signal for Rossby wave influence for rising pressure over NW Europe within a 10-15 day timeframe.
EC EPS 00z going for a pretty impressive turnaround in pressure end next week into the following week, with the longwave trough replaced by a moderate strength +ve height anomaly centred to our east. So much more settled and becoming warmer again in the extended outlook period.
https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83477-model-output-discussion-1st-july-onwards-18z/?p=3237185
„Et nul ne se connait tant qu'il n'a pas souffert, „C'est une dure loi, mais une loi suprème, „Vieille comme le monde et la fatalité, „Qu'l nous faut du malheur regevoir le baptéme, ~Et qu'a ce triste prix tout doit étre acheté. „Les moissons pour murir out besoin de rosée, „Pour vivre et pour sentir l'homme a besoin de pleura, „La joie a pour symbole une plante brisée, „Humide encore de pluie et couverte de fleurs."
volgens mij zie ik toch cumuli buiten 