Een van mijn favoriete meteorologen heeft een update geschreven over El Nino. Het betreft Michael Ventrice. Dr. in de meteorologie.
http://www.wsi.com/blog/el-nino-and-winter-2015-16-the-science-behind-the-predictions
Ik had het al eerder over de Central Pacific El Nino. Tot mijn plezier zie ik dat Michael het er ook over heeft. CP El Nino worden ook wel Modoki El Nino genoemd.
Veel leesplezier!
Hier een gedeelte er uit.
First, we’ve only observed a limited number of El Nino events since observational data has become more reliable (the launching of satellites during the late 1970s and the implementation of the TAO Buoy Array in 1994) . Within only a few Strong El Nino events since the 1980s, we have seen that El Ninos are complex and hard to predict. Each event has its characteristics and associated factors. So can we be sure of our predictions? The short answer is no. The best we can do is assign probabilities, but these get better and better as we learn from each event.
Second, we have a few counter-indicators this year that confuse the picture. Most notably, there is a chance that an oceanic Rossby wave has formed off the west coast of South America. If this is the case, it could work against the Kelvin waves described above, moving warm waters westward. In theory, this could create what we call a Modoki-type El Nino, in which the warming takes place mostly in the central Pacific with cooling in the far eastern Pacific near South America. Our internal research suggests that during Modoki El Nino events, the upstream pattern over the North Pacific can become less of a pattern driver and high pressure near Greenland can set up. When high pressure sets up near Greenland, it can result in a cold and snowy winter along the Eastern U.S. Nevertheless, the balance of the data is currently pointing strongly towards a strong El Nino maintaining through Winter.
Mocht je genoeg tijd hebben, check dan Webinar
https://wsi.wistia.com/medias/j27zqgbtom
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