FORECAST FOR TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW
Date/time(UTC)
Position
(lat. 0N/ long. 0E)
Maximum sustained
surface wind speed (kmph)
Category of cyclonic
Disturbance
31-10-2015/0000
14.4/59.6
180-190 gusting to 210
Extremely severe cyclonic storm
31-10-2015/1200
14.2/58.2
190-200 gusting to 220
Extremely severe cyclonic storm
01-11-2015/0000
14.2/56.9
190-200 gusting to 220
Extremely severe cyclonic storm
01-11-2015/1200
14.3/55.6
180-190 gusting to 210
Extremely severe cyclonic storm
02-11-2015/0000
14.5/54.1
170-180 gusting to 200
Extremely severe cyclonic storm
02-11-2015/1200
14.9/52.1
150-160 gusting to 175
Very severe cyclonic storm
03-11-2015/0000
15.3/50.1
100-110 gusting to 120
Severe cyclonic storm
03-11-2015/1200
15.8/48.5
50-60 gusting to 70
Depression
REMARKS:
THE CONVECTION INCREASED IN PAST 12 HOURS WITH INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE BONDING AROUND THE CENTRE.AND IMPROVEMENT IN CENTRAL FEATURE. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE IS 300C. THE OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY IS ABOUT 50-75 KJ/CM2 TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. IT GRADUALLY DECREASES WESTWARD AND IS ABOUT 15-35 KJ/CM2 WEST OF 60°E. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ABOUT 5-15 KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY HAS INCREASED DURING PAST 06 HRS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS THE SAME. THERE IS FAVOURABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LYING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE AT 200 HPA LEVEL RUNS ALONG 150N. THERE IS ANOTHER ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND THE CYCLONIC STORM LIES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTICYCLONE. IT IS HELPING IN INCREASING MORE WESTWARD COMPONENT IN THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. THE MADDEN JULLIAN OSCILLATION INDEX LIES IN PHASE 2 WITH AMPLITUDE GREATER THAN 2 AND IT WOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN SAME PHASE WITH SIMILAR AMPLITUDE FOR NEXT 5 DAYS. IT IS HIGHLY FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE CLOSER TO YEMEN AND ADJOINING OMAN COAST, IT WOULD EXPERIENCE LOWER OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY AS WELL AS INTRUSION OF DRY AIR FROM NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT, THERE IS POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE SEA BEFORE THE LANDFALL.
MOST OF THE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS ARE SUGGESTING GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IN NEXT 24 HRS. DYNAMICAL STATISTICAL MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. CONSIDERING THE MOVEMENT, MOST OF THE MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS ABOUT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT TOWARDS YEMEN AND ADJOINING OMAN COAST ACROSS GULF OF ADEN. THE PREDICTED TRACK IS MAINLY BASED ON MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
(M.
Date/time(UTC)
Position
(lat. 0N/ long. 0E)
Maximum sustained
surface wind speed (kmph)
Category of cyclonic
Disturbance
31-10-2015/0000
14.4/59.6
180-190 gusting to 210
Extremely severe cyclonic storm
31-10-2015/1200
14.2/58.2
190-200 gusting to 220
Extremely severe cyclonic storm
01-11-2015/0000
14.2/56.9
190-200 gusting to 220
Extremely severe cyclonic storm
01-11-2015/1200
14.3/55.6
180-190 gusting to 210
Extremely severe cyclonic storm
02-11-2015/0000
14.5/54.1
170-180 gusting to 200
Extremely severe cyclonic storm
02-11-2015/1200
14.9/52.1
150-160 gusting to 175
Very severe cyclonic storm
03-11-2015/0000
15.3/50.1
100-110 gusting to 120
Severe cyclonic storm
03-11-2015/1200
15.8/48.5
50-60 gusting to 70
Depression
REMARKS:
THE CONVECTION INCREASED IN PAST 12 HOURS WITH INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE BONDING AROUND THE CENTRE.AND IMPROVEMENT IN CENTRAL FEATURE. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE IS 300C. THE OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY IS ABOUT 50-75 KJ/CM2 TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. IT GRADUALLY DECREASES WESTWARD AND IS ABOUT 15-35 KJ/CM2 WEST OF 60°E. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ABOUT 5-15 KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY HAS INCREASED DURING PAST 06 HRS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS THE SAME. THERE IS FAVOURABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LYING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE AT 200 HPA LEVEL RUNS ALONG 150N. THERE IS ANOTHER ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND THE CYCLONIC STORM LIES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTICYCLONE. IT IS HELPING IN INCREASING MORE WESTWARD COMPONENT IN THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. THE MADDEN JULLIAN OSCILLATION INDEX LIES IN PHASE 2 WITH AMPLITUDE GREATER THAN 2 AND IT WOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN SAME PHASE WITH SIMILAR AMPLITUDE FOR NEXT 5 DAYS. IT IS HIGHLY FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE CLOSER TO YEMEN AND ADJOINING OMAN COAST, IT WOULD EXPERIENCE LOWER OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY AS WELL AS INTRUSION OF DRY AIR FROM NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT, THERE IS POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE SEA BEFORE THE LANDFALL.
MOST OF THE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS ARE SUGGESTING GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IN NEXT 24 HRS. DYNAMICAL STATISTICAL MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. CONSIDERING THE MOVEMENT, MOST OF THE MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS ABOUT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT TOWARDS YEMEN AND ADJOINING OMAN COAST ACROSS GULF OF ADEN. THE PREDICTED TRACK IS MAINLY BASED ON MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
(M.
