[QUOTE]000
WTNT42 KNHC 100856
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015
400 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015
Kate's convective structure hasn't changed much from the previous advisory. The center is located beneath a small central dense overcast with broken banding over the northeastern quadrant. The initial intensity remains 50 kt based on a blend of Dvorak numbers of T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and T3.0/45 kt from SAB. A NOAA P-3 aircraft recently reached Kate, and on its first pass through the center it reported peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 45 kt and surface winds between 40-45 kt. In addition, the central pressure
has fallen to 1003 mb. The plane will be making a few more passes through the center during the next couple of hours.
Although vertical shear is forecast to increase during the next couple of days and Kate will be moving over water colder than 26C within the next 12-24 hours, all of the reliable intensity models
indicate that the cyclone should strengthen and reach hurricane strength by 36 hours, if not sooner. After 36 hours, the shear is expected to increase to nearly 50 kt, which should cause Kate to become post-tropical.
One significant change on this cycle is that the 00Z GFS, UKMET, Canadian, and to some extent the ECMWF now show Kate becoming the dominant low pressure area over the north Atlantic in a few days instead of being absorbed by a separate extratropical
low. Therefore, the updated NHC is now extended beyond 48 hours, showing Kate as a growing extratropical low over the north Atlantic on days 3-5.[/QUOTE]
Meest interessante is dat Kate op termijn transformeert tot een groot Atlatisch laag en na het weekend bij ons op de weerkaart verschijnt.
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