GFS6u tovert deze kaarten er uit. Duidelijk te zien dat de poolwervel onder druk komt te staan en op 384 zelfs een zeer stevige opwarming. Afwachten maar in lijn met Cohen. M.i. gaan we interessante tegemoet. Ik vermoed vanaf 10-15 januari wilde kaarten
EC32 afwachten van vrijdag!
It is becoming less of a question if the polar vortex weakens and more of a question of when. A robust transfer of energy from the troposphere to the stratosphere ended over the weekend. However with the polar vortex at or near record strength, much of the energy was deflected. Still enough energy was absorbed to stretch the polar vortex so as to increase cross-polar flow from Siberia into eastern North America and commence a cooling trend. The models are predicting additional pulses of energy the first and second weeks of January. And there may even be further pulses of energy, which will all likely perturb the polar vortex further. The predicted circulation pattern of ridging in the Barents-Kara Seas/northwest Eurasia and troughing in East Asia/North Pacific is optimal for exciting energy pulses from the troposphere to be absorbed into the stratospheric polar vortex. Therefore we continue to anticipate even more pulses of energy transfer through mid-January and possibly beyond. The duration and the strength of this energy transfer will strongly influence the variability of the polar vortex. We continue to anticipate that the polar vortex has already been and will continue to be sufficiently perturbed/weakened to allow colder weather to spread over the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes.
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