Dat half februari de kansen toenemen op noordelijke hogedruk.
https://forum.netweather.tv/profile/15852-fergieweather/
Het broeit...maar een beetje laat is het wel.
Essentially as per GloSea5: ie +ve MSLP anomalies building central N Atlantic (and perhaps Greenland) with -ve anomaly across/N/E of UK into mid-month; temp anomalies thus trending neutral or -ve (more pronounced -ve signal in northern UK, inevitably in that regime); mean flow NW-N'ly. By later Feb the height/MSLP anomaly shifts E to lie generally more SW/S of UK with resumption of broadly W'ly regime and upturn in temp anomaly. The mean fields of course mask typical spread evident in inspection of stamps and minority solutions (a few of which would be notably colder), but clear form horse at present remains notion of MSLP rises to W (& perhaps NW) and a phase of colder NW-N'lies around mid-month, as recently billed in UKMO outlooks.
Caution though (I assume you refer to the overnight UKMO web update?): we've yet to see any strong signal for temperature anomalies dropping well below average in the longer-range products. At present, and in the absence of any compelling pointer otherwise, the outlook is thus worded appropriately to reflect yesterday's GloSea & ECMWF output, i.e. to lean towards "slightly below average" later in February.
As I mentioned yesterday, we must expect a raft of model outcomes as suites get to grips (or mostly not, currently) with broadscale pattern change and drivers next month. Many should recall the similar wild fluxes we saw ahead of last key pattern change earlier this month (to the colder blocking) albeit for different reasons. The prognosis for Feb was discussed last week at Exeter (seasonal outlook meeting, held monthly) and since then, there's been no strong reason to shift from the views I outlined yesterday re anticipated changes especially from mid-month (when SSW influence likely to be coming into play).
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