In de Estofex guidance las ik de volgende passsage
Latest uptick of convective activity over the CNTRL Bay of Biscay may indicate a reforming center of that depression, which would then be placed more in proximity to the deeper convection and beneath colder mid-levels. Improving thermodynamic conditions should then ensure an increasingly more conducive environment for a strengthening LL vortex over the S-Bay of Biscay during the night. There are some hints that DMC may develop along that vortex and wrap (at least partly) around its center, transforming that low into a tropical-like system. Cyclone phase diagrams support that idea for numerous runs now with more or less pronounced warm-core structures.
Currently analyzed more than 40 kt deep-layer shear also abates a bit, although shear can remain enhanced with such features without inducing a weakening trend.
This low will approach the N-CNTRL coast of Spain during the end of this forecast and it should make landfall beyond 06 UTC. Strong winds and heavy rain would accompany such a system, which is not covered by our forecast procedure! Issued lightning areas over the far S-Bay of Biscay cover thunderstorms ahead of that feature.
Nu vroeg ik me af, is dat al eens eerder voorgekomen een systeem met tropische kenmerken in de golf van biscaje? In de Middelandse Zee weet ik wel dat het kan.
Een andere meer gedetailleerde vraag, waarom hebben tropische systemen juist hinder van windschering, terwijl we hier in de benelux juist meer windschering willen voor zwaardere onweersbuien? Een tropisch systeem bestaat toch ook grotendeels uit onweersbuien..?
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