-> Dat ziet er toch best goed uit.
Very early days. Bear in mind the *majority* signal is for a zonal flow up aloft (& probably westerly QBO into winter, despite some nearer-term complexities in lower strat). Whilst key seasonal output (GloSea5, EC Seasonal & now MeteoFrance ARPEGE-climate too ) concur on the notion of a winter (at least *initially*) prone to blocking, there's members of eg GloSea5 being run daily, so much water has yet to pass under this particular bridge. Whilst 60 yrs of QBO data is hardly anything in the grander historical record, the fact remains that behaviour this year has been unprecedented within that 60-yr timeline. Thus, models may struggle to adequately synthesise what happens next on that front (& the strat generally), which needs to be factored-in despite other key teleconnections (eg as presently in Indian & Pacific Oceans) that may be bolstering the 'blocky' solutions for NW Europe shown in recent runs. *If* the output still paints same coherent story by mid-Nov, we might well be in business. The only certainty is that present strat diagnostics looking ahead to N-D-J-F bear little resemblance to those output at this time last year!
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