De koers wordt steeds westelijker berekend (GFS stribbelde eerst nog tegen) en de VS moet rekening houden met een mogelijke impact aan de zuidoostkust:
At 48 hours and beyond, the GFS has trended sharply westward, and now is in agreement with the UKMET and ECMWF in showing the western extent of the Atlantic subtropical ridge nosing north of Matthew across the Carolinas in 3-4 days. This results in Matthew taking a more northwesterly track across the Bahamas, and closer to the Florida peninsula during this time. The UKMET is farthest west, with a track over the east coast of Florida and into South Carolina in 4-5 days. The GFS, ECMWF, and the GFDL model are a little farther east and remain close to but offshore of Florida. The GFDL and GFS are close to southeastern North Carolina by day 5, while the ECMWF is slower. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted significantly westward at days 3-5, and now lies near the middle of the guidance envelope and close to the ECMWF/GFS blend. While there remains significant uncertainty in the track of Matthew in the long range, the threat to Florida and the southeastern U.S. coast has increased.
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