Nog steeds cat 5, maar lijkt een eyewall replacement te hebben uitgevoerd.
WDPN32 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 25W (HAIMA) WARNING NR
18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON 25W (HAIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 301 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A HIGHLY SYMMETRIC AND TIGHTLY WOUND SPIRAL SYSTEM WITH A WELL-DEFINED 25 NM EYE, GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE LOWER END OF CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T7.0 TO T7.5 (140 TO 155 KNOTS), GIVEN THAT RJTD AND PGTW HAVE BOTH DROPPED THEIR FINAL T VALUES BY 0.5 IN THE LAST SIX HOURS.
..
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. STY HAIMA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD GUIDED BY THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE. THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AT SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS UNTIL THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LUZON AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN. BY TAU 24 STY HAIMA WILL REEMERGE OVER WATER REORGANIZING AS A TYPHOON AND CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD UNDER STILL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AGAIN JUST EAST OF HONG KONG AROUND TAU 60 AND SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INLAND AND STARTS TO TURN NORTHWEST ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS.
WDPN32 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 25W (HAIMA) WARNING NR
18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON 25W (HAIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 301 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A HIGHLY SYMMETRIC AND TIGHTLY WOUND SPIRAL SYSTEM WITH A WELL-DEFINED 25 NM EYE, GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE LOWER END OF CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T7.0 TO T7.5 (140 TO 155 KNOTS), GIVEN THAT RJTD AND PGTW HAVE BOTH DROPPED THEIR FINAL T VALUES BY 0.5 IN THE LAST SIX HOURS.
..
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. STY HAIMA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD GUIDED BY THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE. THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AT SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS UNTIL THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LUZON AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN. BY TAU 24 STY HAIMA WILL REEMERGE OVER WATER REORGANIZING AS A TYPHOON AND CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD UNDER STILL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AGAIN JUST EAST OF HONG KONG AROUND TAU 60 AND SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INLAND AND STARTS TO TURN NORTHWEST ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS.
