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Gisteren vertelde Stewart nog dat hij dat dit gunstig was voor wave2. Hoewel hij wellicht wat meer bedoelde naar het noorden. Over verschillende modellen zegt hij nog dit:
The GEFS, CMC and EPS solutions upstream for the longwave pattern over the NE Pacific and Western Seaboard are all different for the 11-15 day range which has ramifications for the placement of a substantive high latitude block. GEFS furthest east, EPS furthest west (although EPS beginning to raise heights / thicknesses over Scandinavia).
With the MJO convective wave dampening down in the West Indian Ocean, and the 'noise' from the intra/sub-seasonal forcing further east over the Maritime Continent becoming a bit louder, that's not a definitive signal for the models to latch onto just yet. The exception being that all models show the high latitude block.
With a natural evolution in the atmosphere and eastward migration of the tropical wave, we should see the GEFS solution gain the upper hand, although probably a relatively slow process given the speed that trop waves can move at in the Indian Ocean. I think a fair summary for the opening salvo for week 1 winter would be below average temps, with the scope for downward corrections as the margin for error, and increasing downward pressure in time. The pace of eastward migration of tropical waves in the Indian Ocean the key here to timing of models picking up a more coherent cold signal.
De modellen moeten de "waves" dus nog oppikken om het simpel te zeggen..
