http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-djf-v1.pdf
During December, the factors described above suggest an increased likelihood of negative NAO and blocking, which usually bring below-average temperatures for the UK.
Predictions from the Met Office seasonal prediction system, along with those from other global forecast centres, offer strong and consistent support for this view. The left-hand graph in figure T2 shows a clear shift towards colder conditions. The chance of a
prolonged spell of cold weather taking hold in December is high compared to normal, although more usual types of winter weather are not ruled out.
Through the early part of the 3-month period, colder-than-average conditions are more likely than milder-than average. Later in the winter, particularly into February, prediction systems signal a shift towards less likelihood of blocked weather patterns, which would imply a reduction in the chances of cold conditions.
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