Volgens CIMMS al op randje categorie 4.
(119 kt)
Het JWTC is wat conservatiever, maar de waarnemeng van 90kt is al 6 uur oud
270900Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 150.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (DEBBIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL ATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY ORGANIZING SYSTEM WITH A RESURGENCE IN DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER, THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A 16 NM RAGGED EYE, AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT JTWC BEST TRACK POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY AGENCY DVORAKS OF T5.0 AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AROUND 90 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH IMPROVED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT, RADIAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29C) SSTS.
TC DEBBIE HAS BEEN TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NER AND A STR TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN UNDER THE SHARED STEERING INFLUENCE OF BOTH FEATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, MAINTAINING A PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL TC DEBBIE MAKES LANDFALL, BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 24, ALLOWING FOR STEADY TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
(119 kt)
Het JWTC is wat conservatiever, maar de waarnemeng van 90kt is al 6 uur oud
270900Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 150.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (DEBBIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL ATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY ORGANIZING SYSTEM WITH A RESURGENCE IN DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER, THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A 16 NM RAGGED EYE, AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT JTWC BEST TRACK POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY AGENCY DVORAKS OF T5.0 AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AROUND 90 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH IMPROVED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT, RADIAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29C) SSTS.
TC DEBBIE HAS BEEN TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NER AND A STR TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN UNDER THE SHARED STEERING INFLUENCE OF BOTH FEATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, MAINTAINING A PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL TC DEBBIE MAKES LANDFALL, BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 24, ALLOWING FOR STEADY TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
Bericht laatst bijgewerkt: 27-03-2017 13:04