POTENTIALLY SERIOUS NORTH SEA STORM SURGE
I do not wish to be at all alarmist about this but Spring High tides are forecast for next week. They will peak on Dec 6th but will not be far below those levels on Dec 8th at the very time that the deep LP is predicted to move out into the North Sea. It's too early for environment flood warnings which start from Day 5 and updated daily thereafter. The Government site for those is: https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/warnings Here are the tide tables for Dover - this does not seem to have a copy facility but here's the link: http://cspf.co.uk/tide-tables and here's the link to the Spring and Neap tide chart (on the same freeview website): http://cspf.co.uk/tide-chart Remember these are just tide height values under normal weather conditions. If the LP is anywhere as near as intense that the GFS predict then this would lift the sea surface by several feet at least. Even with the UKMO and GEM 12z charts (which I posted on page 78) showing less intense central pressure, the strong straight northerlies will probably produce a substantial tidal surge all the way down the east coast. So if this verifies, it could be a very unfortunate triple whammy. This is definitely one to keep a careful eye on. I shall be producing my next long report over this weekend and I'll include a brief update on any flood warnings.
http://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/88883-model-output-discussion-cold-spell-to-end-autumn/?page=79
Logischerwijs staan de weerfreaks in Engeland op hun kop van de GFS-run. Mooi om het enthousiasme te zien.
