https://twitter.com/NOAAClimate/status/984491458714533888
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/april-2018-enso-update-what-lurks-beneath
Some of the computer models are forecasting development of El Niño by next fall, but there are a number of reasons why we’re not completely taking the bait right now. First, forecasts made this time of year tend to be less successful. Another reason is that while elevated subsurface heat content in the spring sometimes precedes the development of El Niño in the fall, some recent studies have found that this relationship has not been very reliable over the past two decades*.
That said, this month’s ENSO forecast does have a slightly increased chance of fall El Niño conditions. If you were making a random forecast, El Niño would happen 35% of the time in October–December; our forecast says there’s about a 45% chance of El Niño for October–December 2018. Something to keep an eye on as we move past the spring predictability barrier.
