Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Sun 29 Apr 2018 16:00 to Sun 29 Apr 2018 19:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 29 Apr 2018 16:25
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER
An intense supercell near Chalons-en-Champagne at 1615 UTC is rapidly moving northward acorss the MD area along a stationary front with cold 10-13 C air to its west and relatively warm 20-23 C air to its east. It is likely producing severe wind gusts and large hail.
0-3 km shear near the storm is around 25 m/s. The storm will gradually interact with an environment with more curved low-level hodographs and higher low-level humidity (14.5 C at Charleville-Mezieres). The risk of a tornado will therefore increase.