Ik volg het ook actief. Hieronder de verwachting mbt de koers van Florence. In het kort: er bouwt zich een hogedrukblokkade op boven het oosten van de VS richting Bermuda (preciese locatie nog niet zeker). Dit verhindert dat Florence naar het noorden kan afbuigen.
The initial motion estimate is 265/8 kt. The mid-latitude flow across CONUS and the northern Atlantic is forecast to flatten out and become more zonal over the next 48 h or so, resulting in the development of a narrow east-west oriented ridge along 35/36N latitude. This large-scale feature is expected to steer Florence in a general westward direction during that time. By days 3-5, however, the flow across the central and western U.S. is forecast to buckle and become more meridional as a deep mid-/upper-level trough over the northeast Pacific pushes inland over the western U.S., causing downstream ridging over the northeastern U.S. and northwestern Atlantic. The global models agree on this general change in the synoptic-scale flow pattern, but they differ noticeably on where a downstream mid-/upper-level high pressure cell takes up residence over the Atlantic either to the northwest or northeast of Bermuda. The farther west/east the high develops will determine how far west/east Florence will eventually move and possibly affect the U.S. east coast beyond the 5-day forecast period.