De laatste dagen is de rug duidelijker geworden die voorkomt dat Florence naar het noorden afbuigt.
inderdaad. Laatste track forecast geeft dat ook aan:
The initial motion estimate is 280/06 kt. Once again, there is no significant change to the previous forecast track or synoptic reasoning. The models appear to be getting better dialed in on both the location and strength of the developing blocking ridge in the vicinity of Bermuda during the next 4 days as the mid-latitude flow amplifies across the CONUS and the northwestern Atlantic. In fact, the global models are now in very good agreement on forecasting Florence's upper-level mass outflow being deposited to the north and east of the hurricane, which will act to further strengthen the blocking ridge and help to drive the hurricane northwestward toward the southeastern U.S. coastal region. The new NHC model guidance is even more tightly packed about the previous forecast track, with less than a 90 n mi cross-track spread at 72 h and less than 120 n mi spread at 96 h, just prior to expected landfall. Therefore, the new official advisory track is essentially just an update and extension of the previous forecast, and lies between the nearly juxtaposed HCCA and FSSE corrected consensus track models.
Ook nog vermeldenswaardig:
Now that Florence has developed an inner-core ring of deep convection, which has insulated the eye from intrusions of dry air, rapid intensification appears likely to begin soon and continue for the next 36 hours or so due to the expected very low vertical wind shear conditions, dual outflow jet pattern that will be developing, and very warm SSTs of 29-29.5 deg C beneath the hurricane. The most favorable combination of the aforementioned factors will occur in about 48 h, and that's when Florence is likely to achieve its maximum intensity. After 72 hours, the wind shear is expected to increase to around 10-15 kt from the south or southwest, and the dual outflow pattern is forecast to change to only a single poleward outflow pattern. This slight degradation in the upper-level environment, along with slightly cooler SSTs, is expected to result in a gradual weakening of the powerful cyclone. However, Florence is still forecast to be near category-4 strength when the dangerous hurricane makes landfall.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/100248.shtml