Florence in eyewall replacement

808 
WTNT41 KNHC 110242
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number  47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

The rapid intensification of Florence ended just after the last
advisory, with the central pressure falling to near 939 mb.  Since
that time, the eyewall convection has become a bit ragged and the
latest central pressure from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is near 944 mb.  The initial intensity will remain a
possibly generous 120 kt for this advisory based on the aircraft
winds.  Microwave imagery suggests that Florence may be starting an
eyewall replacement cycle.  However, the winds from the Hurricane
Hunter did not clearly indicate the presence of an outer eyewall.

Florence should remain in a light shear environment and over sea
surface temperatures near 29C for at least the next 48 h.  Thus,
there is little other than eyewall replacement cycles to keep the
hurricane from intensifying further as indicated by all of the
intensity guidance.  The new intensity forecast calls for continued
strengthening to near category 5 strength, although at a slower rate
than what occurred during the last 30 h.  Florence is expected to
encounter southwesterly shear near the 72 h point, which could
cause slight weakening before landfall.  However, there remains high
confidence that Florence will be a large and extremely dangerous
hurricane, regardless of its exact intensity.