http://www.weerwoord.be/m/2442706
Edit: Zag net dat Glacier Point wijst op de kans van een SSW in de 2e helft van december.
Toevallig (?) heeft Judah Cohen het in zijn blog hier ook over:
http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/
I dusted off the polar vortex model given the favorable pattern for activating the vertical energy transfer from the troposphere to the stratosphere and perturbing the stratospheric PV. The model correctly predicted a weakening of the stratospheric PV for this week followed by a strengthening of the stratospheric PV in early December and then an even greater weakening of the stratospheric PV starting the third week of December. My interpretation of the SLP anomalies coupled with the polar vortex model is that the second half of December is one period to watch for a possible significant PV disruption and that period could extend into early January. If a significant stratospheric PV disruption does occur in late December or early January, I would be more confident in a relatively cold winter across large stretches of the NH mid-latitudes especially northern Eurasia and the Eastern US
