http://twitter.com/DrAHButler/status/1072532363622711296
Ik kan hier geen tweets embedden. Dus klik maar als je interesse hebt. Amy is meteoroloog bij NOAA.
At least two models are strongly suggesting a major disruption of the polar vortex (#SSW) near the end of this month.
While the 10-day forecast shows little spread (all models seem to agree that the vortex will shift towards Eurasia), the 16 day forecast is (unsurprisingly) all over the map- definitely a lot of wobbling going on.
However, unlike previous instances so far this winter, I find this signal particularly encouraging for a significant event because (a) indications the reversal will be led at upper levels, which suggest strong dynamic wave forcing (also evident in building heat fluxes at 10mb).
and (b) the timing of the deceleration in models like CFSv2 has stayed relatively stationary over the last week (even if a true reversal of the vortex doesn't occur in every run).