Estofex Level 1 voor ZW / Z / ZO Nederland en deel van België morgen
Bericht van: Stefan (Wezep) , 09-06-2019 10:52A level 1 was issued across Benelux and far NW-Germany mainly for isolated large hail.
... Benelux and NW Germany...
The approaching de-amplifying upper trough affects the area of interest during the afternoon hours and hence during peak diabatic heating. Despite rather thick cloud cover, models break up the clouds during the afternoon with temporal insolation anticipated. A plume of moist air from the E and some diabatic heating should push afternoon SBCAPE in the 400-800 J/kg range. DLS in the 20 m/s range and somewhat augmented SRH-3 next to the synoptic-scale front indicate an isolated large hail threat with temporarily organized convection.
Of interest is the bimodal QPF of the numerical guidance. Global models agree in CI with clustering onvection whereas most of the LAMs keep CI on the isolated scale. However with the dynamic nature and the agreement in CAPE during most of the models we added a level 1 for now.
