DISCUSSION
France, Benelux and Germany...
Along a cold front that extends from near London to Nantes, a low-level trough is developing across the Pays-de-la-Loire, that will likely become the focus of storm activity to develop during the day. Ahead of the trough and the front, abundant low-level humidity is analyzed with dew point temperatures of up to 20 C at 06 UTC. As a result, some 500 - 1200 J/kg MLCAPE is expected to develop as the boundary layer warm during the day, albeit with relatively modest lapse rates. In addition to elevated convection, surface-based initiation is expected during the early afternoon, or elevated convection may gradually become surface-based Deep-layer shear should increase as the mid/upper-level jet translates eastward, yielding 20-30 m/s of DLS across the level 2 area. As a result, a few supercells may develop, as supported by several convection-allowing models. They will be capable of producing all hazards. Fairly strong low-level bulk shear around 10 m/s and low LCL heights suggest that some risk for tornadoes will exist as well. The strong winds in the lowest kilometres suggest that swaths of damaging winds may occur with the best organized storms.
Wales and England...
Modest instability will be available here, but rather strong widnd shear suggests that some well-organized low-topped storms may develop during the day, producing heavy rain. Any rotating updrafts will be able to sustain marginally large hail. In addition, the strong low-level shear suggests an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
