SSW Antartica even sterk of zelfs sterker dan 2002

http://twitter.com/EunPa_Lim/status/1168040231603359745 Tweet van Eu-Pa Lin. Zzij werkt als klimaatwetenschapper bij BOM, Australische KNMI.

Currently predicted "sudden" stratospheric warming over Antarctica is likely to be as strong as or even stronger than that of 2002, but even moderate stratospheric warming can impact the southern hemisphere surface climate significantly like in 2016.

Andere 'stratosfeerdame' is Amy Butler. Zij heeft een aantal boeiende tweets.

In the NH, we see "#SSW" and we often think of colder, snowier weather. But in the SH do we expect the same? As Andrew (and Eun-Pa in her paper) point out, you actually see warmer and drier weather over Australia when the #polarvortex weakens (low SAM).

As a quick demonstration (sorry for reanalysis choice), here's what the weather looked like in the two months following the 2002 #SSW. Anomalously warm over Australia and much of Antarctica, cold over New Zealand, the Antarctic peninsula, and Chile. Also dry over Australia.

Of course, that was only one event. But if we look at other times when the Southern Annular Mode (equivalent of the NAO/NAM in the NH) is negative in austral spring, we see very similar patterns.

There is a lot of misinformation about this #SSW possibly leading to this SH's #beastfromtheeast. But from a probabilistic perspective, this gives the wrong impression for certain regions, such as Australia, which is more likely to be warmer and drier after this event...

http://twitter.com/DrAHButler/status/1168763831830503425