000
WTNT43 KNHC 020835
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number  40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
500 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019

Lorenzo passed near Flores in the Azores a few hours ago where
hurricane-force winds, at least in gusts, were observed.  Winds
are now decreasing across those islands.  The current intensity
estimate, 75 kt, assumes only slow weakening since late yesterday.
The cloud pattern is becoming increasingly asymmetric in
appearance, suggestive that transition to an extratropical cyclone
is well underway.  The global models indicate that Lorenzo will soon
become embedded in a frontal zone, and simulated satellite imagery
from the ECMWF and GFS models show an extratropical-looking cloud
pattern later today.  The official forecast calls for a gradual
weakening trend over the next couple of days and is above the
intensity guidance.  Although the system is forecast to become
extratropical in 12 hours, it is still likely be a fairly vigorous
cyclone when it reaches Ireland late Thursday.  After crossing
England, the low is likely to dissipate over continental Europe.