Voor de komende tijd. Dat correleert met meer kans dan normaal op een positieve NAO-fase.
Als de MJO 'het rondje' vervolgt komen we dus in fase 4, 5 en verder, waarbij 6 en 7 de kans op negatieve NAO verhoogt. 3e decade van december?
Voorlopig zie ik een grote kans op maritiem polaire lucht. Stratosfeer op 10 hPa krijgt opnieuw een deuk, SSW is niet in zicht. Afwachten.
An MJO?lagged anomalous weather regime contingency table framework established by Cassou (comparable to Figure 1a) has shown that starting ~10 days after MJO phase 3 (active convection over the eastern Indian Ocean), the occurrence of NAO+ regime is increased by ~60% relative to climatology. This large increase extends through lags up to 12 days after MJO phase 4. This progression in the distribution is in accordance with the nominal ~6 days between each of the numbered MJO phases. Next, there appears a small (~30%) enhanced occurrence of SB and AR regimes at lags of around 0–6 and 10 days, respectively, likely as a result of in situ development. That is, the response to the MJO initiated the NAO+ regime, but the subsequent evolution emerges following internal dynamics in the NAE region independent of MJO forcing. For lags greater than 10 days after MJO phase 6 (active convection over the western Pacific Ocean) NAO− builds up to ~70% increased occurrence and lasts through MJO phase 8. When the occurrence of NAO+ is increased, the other regimes decrease (in particular NAO&minus
, and vice versa.
