Ik denk dat onderstaande wel duidelijk is.
The game is certainly on. Definite signs now of the convection pattern over the Pacific shifting
and as it does so we have our signal for westerly momentum injection, undermining as a result of the sub tropical high and consequent potential wave breaking at high latitude to give us our block. I’m also enjoying reading strong opinions over in the US that EPS is undergoing the strength of the tropical signal and that would mean an underestimation of the meridional shape of the wave - and therefore perhaps my guess at a UK high might be pessimistic. Could we possibly get the block closer to Iceland/Scandy?
@ArHu3 has already signposted the trend towards phase 6/7 on the MJO but to show the same data a different way the move towards the maritimes is clear now, though painfully slow it must be said, and amplitude is fair and now forecast perhaps to remain fair without fading away. This is good news.
