Current thinking is that these ingredients are sufficient to break the cap in the next hour, with convection initiation across northern France and Belgium quickly spreading into the Netherlands. Given 10 m/s low-level shear and high SRH values, rotating updrafts are forecast with a chance of tornadoes with any isolated storm that forms. Large hail and severe wind gusts are also forecast. Chance of storms decreases towards the south of Belgium where drier air at low levels is present. https://www.estofex.org/
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