en de verwachting opgeschaald naar cat 4.

Bericht van: Eric, Rotterdam , 06-10-2020 11:18 

zat al een tijdje te wachten op de nieuwe forecast. 😉

 

663 
WTNT41 KNHC 060857
TCDAT1

Hurricane Delta Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL262020
500 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020

Delta has maintained a very deep central dense overcast during the
past several hours, with overshooting cloud-top temperatures to
-90C, and perhaps hints of an eye trying to emerge.  On the last 
pass through the center, the Air Force plane reported a 4-mb 
pressure fall in one hour to 968 mb, with believable SFMR values of 
80-85 kt.  Thus, the initial wind speed is set to 85 kt.

The hurricane is in the midst of a very impressive rapid
intensification episode, having strengthened over 50 kt during the 
past 24 hours.  I honestly don't see much that will stop it until it
reaches Yucatan, due to low vertical wind shear, high deep-layer
moisture, and the very warm and deep waters of the northwestern
Caribbean.  This is also supported by SHIPS rapid intensification 
probabilities that are well above 50 percent for most categories.  
Thus, the intensity forecast is raised to 115 kt near Yucatan 
landfall, closest to the HWRF forecast model, which has been a 
good performer this year, especially after ingesting NOAA radar 
data.  Some weakening is expected due to land interaction, but 
conditions look ripe for re-intensification over the Gulf of Mexico. 
Almost all the guidance is higher, now showing Delta reaching 
category 4 status in the 2-to-3 day time frame, and the new NHC 
intensity forecast reflects this likelihood.  However, an increase 
in southwesterly shear and cooler shelf waters near the northern 
Gulf coast should promote weakening, and little change has been made 
to the intensity forecast near landfall.  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0900Z 17.5N  81.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 18.7N  83.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 20.4N  85.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 21.8N  88.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  08/0600Z 23.0N  90.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 60H  08/1800Z 24.2N  91.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  09/0600Z 25.8N  92.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  10/0600Z 29.8N  91.1W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
120H  11/0600Z 34.0N  88.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/060857.shtml


Orkaan Delta in 48 uur van tropische depressie tot categorie 4/5?!   ( 1357)
Jelmer (Vlaardingen) ( -2m) -- 06-10-2020 09:01
Ben ik de enige die aan Wilma denkt?   ( 838)
Kevin (Almere) -- 06-10-2020 09:20
Die Delta gaat nog recht over de Mississippidelta   ( 760)
Bart (Abcoude) -- 06-10-2020 09:32
Gewoon per vliegtuig he   ( 607)
Hendrik (Londerzeel-B) ( 7m) -- 06-10-2020 10:02
  Nu al categorie 2, 968 mbar en 160 km/h  
Kevin (Almere) -- 06-10-2020 11:12
en de verwachting opgeschaald naar cat 4.   ( 238)
Eric, Rotterdam -- 06-10-2020 11:18
Noordelijke eyewall kan recht over Cancun trekken   ( 332)
Anthony (Rotterdam) -- 06-10-2020 11:37
Wat met de schrapping van namen?   ( 219)
Hendrik (Londerzeel-B) ( 7m) -- 06-10-2020 11:47