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WTNT43 KNHC 242059
TCDAT3
Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020
Satellite imagery and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate
that the broad area of low pressure that NHC has been following for
the past couple of days has consolidated enough to be considered a
tropical depression. GOES-16 1-minute data shows the center pretty
clearly, with a new area of convection close by, and a minimum
pressure of 1005 mb was reported by the aircraft in that area. The
surface winds were generally fairly light within about a degree of
the center, but data from the plane supports a 25-kt initial
intensity.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm
Sunday and could bring tropical storm conditions to extreme western
Cuba on Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. There is
also a risk of tropical storm conditions in the northern Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday.
2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall is expected across portions of
central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast
Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the Keys. This
rainfall may lead to flash flooding in urban areas.
3. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast as a
tropical storm on Wednesday, and could bring storm surge, rainfall,
and wind impacts to areas from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.
Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of the
depression and updates to the forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/2100Z 18.7N 83.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 19.0N 83.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 19.5N 83.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 20.1N 84.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 20.9N 85.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 22.0N 87.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 23.4N 89.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 27.5N 91.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 35.5N 84.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Blake
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/242059.shtml
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