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Good evening, coldies such as myself know deep down that cold spells are always against the odds and tide. (but not impossible).
Put it this way:
Mild chart with SW'ly winds in 6 days will verify because models are going with the tide. Maybe a little left or right but nothing will reverse that in that timeframe.
Cold chart with E'lys in 6 days time - unlikely to verify because the models are trying to predict something against the tide. Many forces are trying to reverse the outcome, and of course 9 times out of 10 suceed resulting in those ghost cold spells. "Now you see it now you don't"
Of course its worth mentioning that every 5 years or so that those forces are getting more of the upper hand. ????
However I'd be lying if I said I'm not looking at the models, after all, I'm here posting in this thread!