...N France ... Benelux ... W Germany...
12Z subjective SFC analysis indicates SFC convergence stretching across N France into the North Sea ... with backed SFC winds present ahead of it ... leading to favorable low-level shear profiles for severe TSTMS. Plume of rich moisture is extending from N France across the W Benelux into NW Germany ... supporting CAPE of about 500 to 1000 J/kg. Though large-scale forcing for ascent will likely be very limited ... mesoscale lift along the convergence may initiate isolated TSTMS during the next few hours. These will have the potential for large hail and damaging winds. If storms survive into the evening hours ... when LCL height will decrease ... an isolated tornado or two may also occur. Despite limited confidence in widespread TSTM development ... a SLGT is marginally warranted.
12Z subjective SFC analysis indicates SFC convergence stretching across N France into the North Sea ... with backed SFC winds present ahead of it ... leading to favorable low-level shear profiles for severe TSTMS. Plume of rich moisture is extending from N France across the W Benelux into NW Germany ... supporting CAPE of about 500 to 1000 J/kg. Though large-scale forcing for ascent will likely be very limited ... mesoscale lift along the convergence may initiate isolated TSTMS during the next few hours. These will have the potential for large hail and damaging winds. If storms survive into the evening hours ... when LCL height will decrease ... an isolated tornado or two may also occur. Despite limited confidence in widespread TSTM development ... a SLGT is marginally warranted.
