Further W, not much modifications occurred with a broad level 1 streched all the way to Benelux. N-ward shifting morning convection with residual cloudiness should delay CI into the afternoon/evening hours. Then, the input of cloud advection from France should weaken with some temporal diabatic heating possible - enough to erode the weak cap. 1-1.5 kJ/kg MLCAPE and 10-15 m/s DLS await this convection so a few hail and heavy rain reports are possible.
A growing concern for a more organized threat arises from Belgium to Luxembourg into far W-Germany, where latest data gives a non-zero chance for a weak surface low to evolve, which enhances forcing. A resulting growing cluster of storms could become an issue for excessive rainfall amounts. Persistent signals in some EPS fields and TPWs well above 30 mm convinced me to upgrade for a level 2 mainly for excessive rain. In addition, a few funnel/short-lived tornado reports are possible along the LL confluence axis with maximized LLCAPE.
