"While CAPE will stay marginal, warm sector will be very strongly sheared with 0-3 km bulk shear exceeding 25 m/s, 0-1 km bulk shear exceeding 15 m/s and 0-1 km SRH locally reaching up to 300 m2/s2. Low-topped supercells are forecast to develop with strong low-level rotation that will pose threat of tornadoes and severe wind gusts. Given the intensity of the low-level wind shear, some of the tornadoes may be strong. Any developing storm will also pose a risk of severe wind gusts given the strong background flow reaching 30 m/s at 850 hPa level."
"High-resolution models currently trend more towards isolated supercells or small linear segments rather than towards large convective system. For example, ICON-D2 simulates a number of long-lived, isolated supercells with strong vertical vorticity tracks. It should also be noted that the storms will move very fast with forward speeds of 25 - 35 m/s. The first storms are expected over the UK in the morning and around the noon. The threat will rapidly increase across W France towards 18 UTC and the storms will spread owards BENELUX and Germany during the evening and night. Severe weather risk will likely persist till Thursday 06 UTC as the cold front approaches E Germany."