Natuurlijk is de betrouwbaarheid van zo'n voorspelling laag, maar wat voor verwachting zou jij dan willen om wel wat hoop op winterweer te hebben. Een gordel van hogedruk vanaf het VK naar Scandinavië lijkt me een van de beste settings die je kan hebben voor kansen op koud winterweer. In de verwachting staat dat:
- Oost-Europa waarschijnlijk te maken krijgt met een (zeer) koude winter, kortom, de brongebieden lijken goed gevuld te zijn met koude lucht.
- In het noorden en noordwesten van Europa domineren hogedrukgebieden. Daardoor is het aan de droge kant, maar liggen de temperaturen rond of onder normaal.
- Vooral in de tweede helft van de winter neemt de kans op aanhoudende oostenwinden toe, waarmee (zeer) koude lucht uit Oost-Europa onze kant op kan komen.
- Tegelijkertijd neemt de kans op sneeuw in de loop van de winter ook nog eens toe vanuit het zuiden.
Tekst over de brongebieden:
Unlike areas influenced by the Mediterranean Sea that are forecast to stay near, or even a few degrees above normal, AccuWeather forecasters say interior portions of Eastern Europe will be in the bull's-eye for unseasonably cold air this winter.
"If a shot of cold air is ejected by the polar vortex, the core of that cold is going to end up settling in over parts of Eastern Europe," Roys explained.
The area at the most risk for temperatures several degrees below normal this winter includes an area from central Ukraine, northward to Latvia and Estonia and as far west as Slovakia and Poland.
Tekst over de weerspatronen bij ons:
Unlike its stormy counterpart to the south, Northern Europe is not predicted to face unsettled weather this winter.
Due in part to a lack of frequent windstorms, prolonged stretches of drier weather are in store for eastern France, Germany, Sweden and Norway.
In addition, temperatures are not anticipated to be prone to any extreme variations for the first half of the winter. This could spell relief for residents across Northern Europe concerned about heating costs this winter.
However, Old Man Winter won't be content with staying in the shadows for the entire duration of the season. Later this winter, the opportunity for prolonged bouts of cold air will arrive across Northern Europe, especially across Ireland and the United Kingdom.
As the second half of the season approaches, the predominant wind direction will shift across northwestern Europe and become more easterly in nature. Since the core of cold air across the European continent is forecast to set up over the east, an easterly wind will be able to transport that chilly air farther to the west.
Temperatures during the second half of winter will dip to near-normal and below-normal levels over northwestern Europe, according to Roys.
These cold pushes of air from the east can lead to significant spikes in heating demands for several days to even a week at a time across northwestern Europe. If energy production and demand issues are still in flux by January or February, these cold snaps may place a significant strain on residents' wallets.
On top of chilly winds out of the east, the La Niña phase will increase the opportunity for snow across the United Kingdom and Ireland as well as areas from France to Poland, especially later in the season.
"Snow is not necessarily going to come from any individual big storm, but there will be frequent batches of light to moderate snow that can produce a bit of accumulation," Roys said.
