CME Passage Detected: CME passage detected at 09:14 UTC (Oct 31) with a solar wind increase to just above 400 km/s. This is much weaker than originally predicted. The next several hours will determine if a geomagnetic storm will be possible. Will need some help from the Bz/IMF to make this happen.
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Geomagnetic activity is back to quieter levels following a brief enhancement (Kp4) due to a period of time where the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was pointing south. This was unrelated to the much anticipated arrival of the Oct 28 CME.
As of this update, this CME has not yet been detected, meaning that whatever portion of the plasma cloud is Earth directed, is moving much slower than anticipated. A geomagnetic storm watch remains in place for now, however the possibility of Strong (G3) storm conditions will be much lower with every passing hour. Just like with any other CME, we must wait until an actual passage and look at the data to determine what should be expected.