Below are the 500mb height anomaly composites for December, January and February and analog years.
December composite features a meridional pattern with anomalous ridging over central N and NW Atlantic, troughing over NE Atlantic and NW Europe, ridging over W Russia.January composite features northern blocking with positive heights centred over Labrador and NW Russia, low heights over Azores and western Europe.February composite features northern blocking centred over Iceland, low heights Azores through into mainland Europe.Based on the analogs, December features Atlantic ridging but a generally unsettled look for the UK with Atlantic lows moving NW to SE, with potential for some northerly outbreaks. January and February certainly a cold and wintry look in the mean, with northern blocking and low pressure close to the south and southwest of the UK.
Zoals ook verteld tijdens de Wintermeeting. Namelijk een wisselende eerste helft met een afwisseling van koudere en zachtere fases, de twee helft van de winter zou dan behoorlijk koud kunnen verlopen. De 'analoges' tonen dat ook precies.