Hier zat ik al op te wachten, vanwege het tornadorisico bij Denemarken waar ik eerder over postte. Het gebied waar Estofex zich nu op richt bevindt zich iets ten zuidoosten daarvan. Het gaat vooral om een verhoogd risico van verschijnselen bij onweersbuien vanwege de forse heliciteit, waarbij inderdaad het tornadorisico wordt genoemd. Tekst van Estofex in het Engels onder de afbeelding.
Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Fri 18 Feb 2022 12:00 to Fri 18 Feb 2022 15:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 18 Feb 2022 10:36
Forecaster: TUSCHY
This MD was issued to increase thunderstorm probabilities a bit in this area. The time frame of interest for this MD will be 14-18Z.
Latest data increases prefrontal moisture somewhat which is in line with realtime data over N France. This moisture surge combined with strengthening lift and steepening lapse rates now pushes the forecast CAPE area in model soundings in the 4-5 km AGL range. With 0-6 km shear approaching 100 kn, the risk of extreme wind gusts during the cold front passage increases. Of note is that EPS and deterministic data does not necessarily reflect this trend, although maximum members also show swaths of 35 m/s plus gusts (onshore). As this convection moves offshore atop the far W Baltic Sea, extreme gusts in excess of 40 m/s are possible which may also affect coastal areas of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
Despite not explicitly shown in NWP guidance, any slight deviation of the updraft increases SRH substantially and an isolated tornado risk is still forecast.
No adjustments to the cold front passage to the south of the MD were done.
Please keep in mind that our focus remains on convective gusts. We do not reflect the extreme background flow event in our level scheme.