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Ocean and atmosphere influence on the 2015 European heatwave (iop.org)
4. Discussion There is increasing evidence that the ocean state can be a precursor for the shape of a season to come (Buchan et al 2014, Duchez et al 2016, Grist et al 2019, Hallam et al 2019). The recent summers of 2015 and 2018 were both exceptionally hot and dry over much of central Europe (figures 1(b), (c)) and both had a similar temperature anomaly pattern in the northern North Atlantic (figure S6). This raises interesting and important questions about the ocean’s potential to contribute to the development of exceptionally warm European summers. Present seasonal forecasting systems—even when they display skill (Scaife et al 2014, Dunstone et al 2016, Dunstone et al 2018)-underestimate extreme seasonal conditions (Baker et al 2018).