027
WTPZ41 KNHC 292039
TCDEP1
Hurricane Agatha Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
400 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022
Satellite images indicate that Agatha continues to intensify at a
rapid pace. The hurricane has a compact inner core and an eye
feature has recently become apparent in geostationary satellite
data. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were both 5.0/90 kt at
18Z. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating
Agatha and so far found maximum flight-level winds of 107 kt at 700
mb and maximum SFMR winds of about 90 kt. Based on that data, the
initial intensity is increased to 95 kt, which is just below major
hurricane strength, and the minimum pressure is estimated to be 964
mb.
The hurricane has not moved much during the past several hours, with
the latest initial motion estimated to be a slow and erratic 045/1
kt. The models agree that a more steady northeastward motion should
commence very soon, and that motion is expected to bring the core of
Agatha to the coast of southern Mexico Monday afternoon or evening.
The NHC track forecast has been shifted a little to the east of the
previous one based on the more eastward initial position.
Agatha has strengthened at an impressive rate of 45 kt over the past
24 hours, and it likely will intensify a little more as it is
expected to remain in generally favorable conditions until it
reaches the coast of Mexico. However, there is a chance of an
eyewall replacement cycle that could cause the intensity of the
hurricane to fluctuate. After landfall, rapid weakening is forecast
and Agatha is expected to dissipate over the rugged terrain of
southern Mexico on Tuesday. The NHC intensity forecast is similar
to the previous one and follows the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids
through landfall.
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