Western Germany, Benelux, eastern France, western Alps, north-western Italy
Ahead of the approaching cold front, a warm and moist air mass is advected north. Widespread initiation is expected along the front, with most activity expected over the western Alps and south-western Germany, where CAPE is highest. Vertical wind shear is sufficient for well-developed multicells, that move along the cold front and are expected to cluster and form a squall line. Supercells are also not ruled out along the level 2 area due to an increasing mid-level jet that ejects from the upstream trough axis.
Heavy rain will be the main threat across the western Alps and south-western Germany, but also severe wind gusts and locally large hail are forecast. Potential is limited farther north due to weaker CAPE and also partly cool boundary layer. Elevated storms can go over the North Sea late in the period thanks to ongoing warm air advection ahead of the cold front.
