Waarschijnlijk o.b.v. de beschikbare seizoensmodellen.
Bericht van: Jelmer (Vlaardingen) , 15-10-2022 13:18Er is toch wel een signaal aanwezig voor een vrij geblokkeerd patroon voor de vroege winter (november/december/januari) met hogedrukgebieden boven Scandinavië of Groenland. Dat zou de weg vrij kunnen maken voor een koudere periode voor grote delen van Europa.
Ook het MetOffice (VK) gaat daarin mee:
“Weather patterns for October look mobile with a westerly or south westerly air flow likely to bring Atlantic weather systems across the UK at times, resulting in periods of wet, and potentially windy weather, a greater proportion of which will affect the north and west. Temperatures are predicted to be above average in October.
“November and December look more settled with high pressure likely to dominate our weather. Exact weather conditions will be dictated by where the high pressure settles over the Atlantic and the UK, but we are likely to see a higher incidence of northerly airflows, preventing mild, moist air flowing to the UK from the Atlantic Ocean and increasing the potential for cold snaps with some threat of snow and ice, mainly in northern areas.
“The most likely scenario as we head into 2023 is for the risk of high-pressure to decrease, and a return to more unsettled conditions with wet, windy, and mild spells possible. However, there is still a risk we could see a Sudden Stratospheric Warming. If this happens it could potentially lead to a cold spell for the UK and northern Europe, although the chances of a very cold winter, comparable to 2009/10, are still low this winter.”
https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/
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