ESTOFEX ondersteund mijn eerdere gedachtes...
Bericht van: Arjen (Jessheim, Noorwegen) , 02-07-2005 21:03
Over de ontwikkeling van een MCS welke langs de westkust naar het noorden trekt. Echter de ESTOFEX forecaster zie het niet zo zitten met de theta-e tong... Ik zie daar wat meer heil in. Overigens rept ESTOFEX nog niet over het KF, dat komt pas morgen ter discussie denk ik.
Greetz Arjen
ESTOFEX Forecast:
Models agree in the evolution of weak CAPE towards Sunday afternoon over France. NLY SFC flow is expected to continue across S France through much of the day ... with return flow beginning late on Sunday. This suggests that advective increase of BL moisture should be mimimal during the day ... and that any increase of moisture will likely be related to evapotranspiration. Quantitative contribution of this factor is uncertain ... but thinking is that low-level moisture will probably not increase dramatically. BOLAM suggests that EML from Iberia will likely not make it across France ... so that significant advective steepening of the lapse rates is unlikely. As large-scale vertical motion should also remain fairly weak until late Sunday night ... afternoon profiles across France are expected to remain largely unchanged. However ... weak CAPE may locally be possible along developing SFC convergence over NRN France which may favor accumulation of sufficiently deep moisture to sustain deep convective updrafts.
Large-scale ascent is expected to be minimal during the day ... but to increase during the night. Isolated/scattered TSTMS may form during peak heating hours over central and NRN France along mesoscale convergence despite weak upper support ... and may congeal into a nocturnal MCS which may persist through the night and affect NRN France as well as the Benelux States.
Given minimal thermodynamic support ... kinematic fields are somewhat marginal ... with about 15 m/s deep shear. Nonetheless ... isolated large-hail/severe-wind events may be expected ... especially with the MCS that is anticipated after dark. However ... ATTM it seems that shear in the cloud-bearing layer will be too low for an organized severe weather threat.Models agree in the evolution of weak CAPE towards Sunday afternoon over France. NLY SFC flow is expected to continue across S France through much of the day ... with return flow beginning late on Sunday. This suggests that advective increase of BL moisture should be mimimal during the day ... and that any increase of moisture will likely be related to evapotranspiration. Quantitative contribution of this factor is uncertain ... but thinking is that low-level moisture will probably not increase dramatically. BOLAM suggests that EML from Iberia will likely not make it across France ... so that significant advective steepening of the lapse rates is unlikely. As large-scale vertical motion should also remain fairly weak until late Sunday night ... afternoon profiles across France are expected to remain largely unchanged. However ... weak CAPE may locally be possible along developing SFC convergence over NRN France which may favor accumulation of sufficiently deep moisture to sustain deep convective updrafts.
Large-scale ascent is expected to be minimal during the day ... but to increase during the night. Isolated/scattered TSTMS may form during peak heating hours over central and NRN France along mesoscale convergence despite weak upper support ... and may congeal into a nocturnal MCS which may persist through the night and affect NRN France as well as the Benelux States.
Given minimal thermodynamic support ... kinematic fields are somewhat marginal ... with about 15 m/s deep shear. Nonetheless ... isolated large-hail/severe-wind events may be expected ... especially with the MCS that is anticipated after dark. However ... ATTM it seems that shear in the cloud-bearing layer will be too low for an organized severe weather threat.
Greetz Arjen
ESTOFEX Forecast:
Models agree in the evolution of weak CAPE towards Sunday afternoon over France. NLY SFC flow is expected to continue across S France through much of the day ... with return flow beginning late on Sunday. This suggests that advective increase of BL moisture should be mimimal during the day ... and that any increase of moisture will likely be related to evapotranspiration. Quantitative contribution of this factor is uncertain ... but thinking is that low-level moisture will probably not increase dramatically. BOLAM suggests that EML from Iberia will likely not make it across France ... so that significant advective steepening of the lapse rates is unlikely. As large-scale vertical motion should also remain fairly weak until late Sunday night ... afternoon profiles across France are expected to remain largely unchanged. However ... weak CAPE may locally be possible along developing SFC convergence over NRN France which may favor accumulation of sufficiently deep moisture to sustain deep convective updrafts.
Large-scale ascent is expected to be minimal during the day ... but to increase during the night. Isolated/scattered TSTMS may form during peak heating hours over central and NRN France along mesoscale convergence despite weak upper support ... and may congeal into a nocturnal MCS which may persist through the night and affect NRN France as well as the Benelux States.
Given minimal thermodynamic support ... kinematic fields are somewhat marginal ... with about 15 m/s deep shear. Nonetheless ... isolated large-hail/severe-wind events may be expected ... especially with the MCS that is anticipated after dark. However ... ATTM it seems that shear in the cloud-bearing layer will be too low for an organized severe weather threat.Models agree in the evolution of weak CAPE towards Sunday afternoon over France. NLY SFC flow is expected to continue across S France through much of the day ... with return flow beginning late on Sunday. This suggests that advective increase of BL moisture should be mimimal during the day ... and that any increase of moisture will likely be related to evapotranspiration. Quantitative contribution of this factor is uncertain ... but thinking is that low-level moisture will probably not increase dramatically. BOLAM suggests that EML from Iberia will likely not make it across France ... so that significant advective steepening of the lapse rates is unlikely. As large-scale vertical motion should also remain fairly weak until late Sunday night ... afternoon profiles across France are expected to remain largely unchanged. However ... weak CAPE may locally be possible along developing SFC convergence over NRN France which may favor accumulation of sufficiently deep moisture to sustain deep convective updrafts.
Large-scale ascent is expected to be minimal during the day ... but to increase during the night. Isolated/scattered TSTMS may form during peak heating hours over central and NRN France along mesoscale convergence despite weak upper support ... and may congeal into a nocturnal MCS which may persist through the night and affect NRN France as well as the Benelux States.
Given minimal thermodynamic support ... kinematic fields are somewhat marginal ... with about 15 m/s deep shear. Nonetheless ... isolated large-hail/severe-wind events may be expected ... especially with the MCS that is anticipated after dark. However ... ATTM it seems that shear in the cloud-bearing layer will be too low for an organized severe weather threat.
heb ook al even beantwoord 