Rond 24ste in fase 6. Verwachtte impact -als die komt- begin februari.
Sowieso afwachten wat de amplitude wordt, lastige overgang van fase 5 naar 6. Over een week weten we daar meer over. Modelletjes hebben het daar moeilijk mee. CPC - Climate Weather Linkage: Madden - Julian Oscillation (noaa.gov)
Ook komt er nog impact van de net wel/niet SSW van 17 januari.
We haven’t talked much about the surface impacts yet, but we tend to think of it in a probabilistic sense: a disrupted polar vortex increases the odds that the tropospheric jet stream will stay shifted farther south, which increases the risk for cold air outbreaks over the eastern United States and Europe. Most importantly, this “loading of the dice” for cold air can persist for up to 6 weeks after the vortex is disrupted, making these events relevant for weather timescales, but also for longer sub-seasonal forecasts (e.g., Week-2 to Monthly Outlooks). The polar vortex is acting up | NOAA Climate.gov
M.i. alle reden om de hoop niet te laten varen.
