Vanochtend was er nog geen Estofex-bericht, maar nu komen er ineens vier mesoscale discussies, waarvan drie voor Frankrijk, en een voor noord Duitsland. Er is ook een bericht van Keraunos.
In noord Duitsland worden vanavond een paar onweersbuien verwacht; ik heb de indruk dat de aangegeven tijd niet klopt?
https://www.keraunos.org/previsions/prevision-orage-tornade-france-convective-outlook.html
Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Sat 27 Apr 2024 09:00 to Sat 27 Apr 2024 11:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 27 Apr 2024 08:10
Forecaster: TUSCHY
A Mesoscale Discussion was issued for N-CNTRL Germany for a few organized thunderstorms.
Time-frame for organized convection: 13Z-18Z
A northward lifting warm front serves as focus for a few thunderstorms during peak heating with a short wave crossing the area of interest from SW to NE. NWP guidance diverges regarding magnitude of CI but at least a few thunderstorms should evolve with ongoing diabating heating and improving BL moisture along the frontal boundary.
300-600 J/kg MUCAPE face adequate shear for a few organized updrafts including a supercell or two as any deviating storm would ingest better streamwise vorticity with enhanced SR inflow. Despite thin/elongated CAPE profiles an isolated hail event is not ruled out with otherwise strong gusts the main hazard. LCLs of 1km should hamper the tornado risk despite the otherwise favorable LL wind profile but would like to include at least a low-end risk for any updraft riding along the warm front, where high res. models show a regional drop of LCLs after peak heating. The risk diminishes after sunset.