Wow, ben onder de indruk van meerdere buien, had toch wel een level 2 van estofex kunnen zijn. Zoveel discrete buien
Klopt; men beargumenteert dit als volgt:
For now a broad level 1 was issued to highlight the general risk of strong to severe gusts with more robust cells. Amount of 0-3 km shear also points to bowing line segments with an enhanced gust risk.
A tornado risk is certainly present with any longer-lived thunderstorm and rapid translation of the cells would also support a significant/long-tracked event. No upgrade to a level 2 was performed as it remains unclear, if a more clustered tornado event next to discrete thunderstorm activity materializes, caused by ongoing but important issues of the MSLP and geopotential height geometries. Some models would support a regional outbreak potential of rotating updrafts e.g. for far NE France to Belgium/Netherlands into NW Germany with nowcast becoming an important issue!
Ok, dekt wel natuurlijk veel scenario's ... een MD had gemogen, 1 blik op de radar gisteren namiddag (met onze zeer (!!!) beperkte radarbeelden) geeft al een vermoeden dat het tegen dat laatste scenario aanleunde.
