Krathon (20W) nu 923mbar, maar de toekomstige richting is onbekend

Enkele quotes van de forecast discussion:

MODEL DISCUSSION: IN THE AGGREGATE, TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT, GENERATING EXTREME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK.

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THEN THERE IS THE GFS WHICH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE, DOES ITS OWN THING. THE RESULT IS A DEGREE OF SPREAD THAT IS COMPLETELY UNREPRESENTATIVE OF THE OVERALL SITUATION. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, BUT SLOWS DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AS A HEDGE AGAINST THE ALTERNATE SCENARIO

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IN THE ALTERNATE SCENARIO, THE SYSTEM WEAKENS DOWN TO A TROPICAL STORM DUE TO ERC AND INCREASING SHEAR, BEFORE DISSIPATING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG.

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INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, BOTH IN THE NEAR- AND LONG-TERM DUE TO NEAR-TERM IMPACTS OF THE ERC AND THE LONG-TERM IMPACTS OF WHICH TRACK IS ULTIMATELY TAKEN. NEEDLESS TO SAY, CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR ALL FORECAST PARAMETERS.

Kortom, de trekrichting is noordoost of west, of nergens heen. De intensiteit is supertyfoon of dissipatie, of landfall op Taiwan bij miljoenenstad Kaohsiung of Tainan. De forecasters hebben er een zware dag aan, wat duidelijk aan hun woordkeuze is af te leiden. De vorige discussion had het over een 'unprecedented extreme bifurcation'.

Wel een mooie cycloon om te zien.